Tangent · Theme: quantum computing · 2026-10-08 · outside the module spine

Quantum Computing

Created Oct 8, 2026 · Latest reported quarter, ended Jun 30, 2026 (Q2): IONQ, RGTI, QBTS, QUBT, QNT, XNDU, INFQ. IQMX, PSQL, HQ and the large companies in Tier B are not covered with filings-based figures.

You asked about the five names on your watchlist — Xanadu (XNDU), IonQ (IONQ), Quantinuum (QNT), Rigetti (RGTI) and D-Wave (QBTS) — with room for more. I added Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) and Infleqtion (INFQ) as full profiles, three newer listings (IQM, Pasqal, Horizon Quantum) as short unprofiled lines, and the large companies that run quantum programs. Two of your five did not exist as public tickers before 2026: Xanadu listed on March 27 and Quantinuum on June 4. All seven profiled names also fell between 3% and 10% on October 8 (your screenshot shows five of them); I found no sourced cause, so I give none.

Label vs. substance: "quantum stock" covers five technologies and several kinds of revenue D-Wave built its business on quantum annealers, which solve optimization problems and are not general-purpose gate-model computers. It bought Quantum Circuits in January 2026 to add a gate-model program. IonQ is turning into a conglomerate: besides trapped-ion computers it has acquired networking and key-distribution (ID Quantique), sensing (Vector Atomic, announced), chip design (Oxford Ionics) and, on July 31, 2026, a semiconductor foundry (SkyWater). I did not see a revenue split by product line in the parts of its Q2 release I read, so its $80M should not be assumed to be all computing revenue. Quantum Computing Inc. describes itself as a photonics and semiconductor manufacturing company; Infleqtion sells neutral-atom computers alongside clocks, RF receivers and inertial sensors and does not split revenue between them. Quantinuum is the closest of the seven to a computing-only business by its product list, but I did not see a segment split either.

Share structure also matters. Quantinuum is an "Up-C": Class B shares carry votes but no economic rights and are paired one-to-one with common units of the operating company, so only 36.1M Class A shares are outstanding against the 263M shares (Class A plus Class B) behind the vendor market cap, and its Q2 loss attributable to Quantinuum Inc. ($65.4M) is a fraction of the as-converted loss ($596.5M). Xanadu has two classes (251.6M multiple-voting Class A, 52.7M subordinate-voting Class B). This is the same cross-holding caution as Module 0003's BN/BAM.

What "good" means in this field

A conventional bit is 0 or 1; a qubit can be in a superposition, and qubits can be entangled, which lets some problems be solved with far fewer steps. The catch is that qubits are fragile. The whole industry is therefore a race on a few measurable things, and the vocabulary below is what separates a real milestone from a headline.

ApproachWhoStrengthMain obstacle
Superconducting circuitsIBM, Google, Rigetti, Amazon (cat qubits), D-Wave's new gate-model lineVery fast gates (Rigetti cites ~60 ns); chip-fabrication know-howOperates near absolute zero; wiring and cooling scale poorly; limited connectivity
Trapped ionsIonQ, QuantinuumHighest reported gate fidelities; any qubit can interact with any otherSlower gates; controlling and moving many ions as machines grow
Neutral atomsInfleqtion, Pasqal, QuEra, Atom ComputingLarge, reconfigurable arraysGate speed and error rates; atom loss mid-computation
PhotonicXanadu, PsiQuantum, Quantum Computing Inc.Chip and fibre based; natural fit for networking; less coolingPhoton loss; gates are probabilistic
AnnealingD-WaveA commercial product today for optimization problemsNot a general-purpose computer; speed-up claims are contested
TopologicalMicrosoftPotentially far fewer errors per qubitUnproven at scale; I did not verify the current status

The approach table is general industry framing, not sourced cell by cell.

The universe, in tiers

Tier A — listed pure-plays, profiled (filings read). Exchange from Yahoo Finance metadata.

CompanyListingApproachHow it funds itselfWhat the revenue is
IonQ IONQNYSETrapped ion, plus acquired networking, sensing, chips and a foundryEquity and stock-funded acquisitions: Oxford Ionics ($1.075B, $1.065B of it in stock, closed Sept 2025); SkyWater ($35/share, $15 cash plus $20 in IonQ stock, about $1.8B, closed Jul 31, 2026)Cloud and system sales plus acquired businesses; no product-line split seen in the Q2 release
Quantinuum QNTNasdaqTrapped ion (Helios)IPO Jun 4, 2026: 28.0M Class A shares at $60, $1.68B gross; Honeywell holds about 47.8% of the voting power; Up-C structureSystem sales and cloud access; heavily concentrated: RIKEN was 60% of 2025 revenue, 63% of 2024 (prospectus)
Rigetti RGTINasdaqSuperconductingPublic equity; a $35M Quanta Computer private placement in 2025; Commerce letter of intent for up to $100M with an equity issuePublic-sector contracts are a significant portion of revenue (10-Q)
D-Wave QBTSNasdaqAnnealing, plus gate-model via Quantum CircuitsPublic equity; $550M Quantum Circuits deal closed Jan 20, 2026 ($252.8M net cash paid per the cash-flow statement, the rest in stock); Commerce LOI of $100MCloud access and system sales; first-half bookings $35.5M, but Q2 bookings only $2.1M
Xanadu XNDU (XNDU.TO in C$)Nasdaq and TSXPhotonic (Aurora)De-SPAC with Crane Harbor, first traded Mar 27, 2026; Yorkville standby equity facility of up to $300M (May 2026), $67.2M drawn in Q2Research contracts; the company attributes the year-over-year increase to DARPA Stage B work
Quantum Computing Inc. QUBTNasdaqPhotonics, photonic chip foundry, optimization machines (Dirac-3)Cash and investments of $1.32B at Jun 30 (how it was raised is not traced here); three 2026 acquisitions used about $180M of cash in H1Product and foundry sales; contract backlog $42.5M
Infleqtion INFQNYSENeutral atom, plus sensing and clocksListed Feb 2026 (first trade Feb 17 in the data I pulled); Commerce LOI of $100MIncludes government contracts; no computing vs. sensing split

Tier A2 — other recent listings, not profiled. Press reports and one data vendor only; I did not read their filings.

CompanyWhat it isListing (press reports)Market cap, Oct 8, 2026 (vendor)Other (vendor)
IQM IQMXFinnish superconducting hardware makerNasdaq ADSs from Jul 2, 2026 via a SPAC with Real Asset Acquisition Corp; also on Nasdaq Helsinki$1.88BTTM revenue $39.0M; cash $135.8M
Pasqal PSQLFrench neutral-atom companyNasdaq from Aug 28, 2026 after a SPAC merger with Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp. II$1.51BNo financials on the vendor page
Horizon Quantum HQSingapore quantum softwareNasdaq from Mar 20, 2026 via dMY Squared$0.85BCash $113.3M; revenue effectively nil

Tier B — large companies with quantum programs. Quantum is not separable in their reporting, so I computed nothing for them. Statements are company claims or press reports as of the dates shown.

CompanyApproach and latest public milestone I foundFinancial link
IBM IBMSuperconducting. Nighthawk is 120 qubits; Starling (200 logical qubits, 100 million gates) is targeted for 2029; its technology page claims advantage was delivered in 2026.A $1B Commerce letter of intent (May 21, 2026) to set up a quantum foundry subsidiary, with the Department taking an equity stake in the company; IBM stated in Feb 2025 that cumulative quantum business was approaching $1B (reported).
Alphabet GOOGLSuperconducting. Willow, 105 qubits, below-threshold error correction (Dec 9, 2024).Not reported separately.
Microsoft MSFTTopological. Majorana 1 announced Feb 2025; Microsoft and PsiQuantum are in the final phase of DARPA's related US2QC pilot.Not reported separately.
Amazon AMZNCat-qubit prototype chip, Ocelot (Feb 2025). I found no 2026 update.Not reported separately.
Nvidia NVDANot a quantum hardware maker. NVQLink (Oct 2025) links quantum processors to GPU systems; the enabler angle.Not reported separately.
Honeywell HONParent of Quantinuum. About 47.8% of the combined voting power after the IPO, with board-nomination rights.How Honeywell accounts for Quantinuum: not checked.

Private and not listed. PsiQuantum (photonic; $100M Commerce LOI; DARPA US2QC final phase), Atom Computing (neutral atom; $100M Commerce LOI; DARPA QBI Stage B), QuEra, Diraq and others. No public market access yet.

Q2 2026 scorecard: what each company reports

Company (US$ M)Revenue, Q2 2026 (vs. Q2 2025)Operating loss, GAAPAdjusted loss (company's own definition)GAAP net lossNote
IonQ80.1 (+287% vs. 20.7)−337.2−120.3 adj. EBITDA (−95.6 excluding SkyWater-related spend)−1,867.7$1,649M of the net loss is a non-cash loss on the fair value of warrant liabilities. FY2026 revenue guide $280–290M, excluding SkyWater.
Quantinuum8.0 (+279% vs. 2.1)Not comparable (one-time IPO charge)−68.3 adj. EBITDA (vs. −43.5)−596.5 as-converted; −65.4 attributable to Quantinuum Inc.$464.6M equity-compensation and payroll-tax charge. First-half revenue fell to $13.2M from $21.2M. FY2026 guide $28–32M.
Rigetti5.1 (+185% vs. 1.8)−28.1 (as reported in press copy of the release; 10-Q shows operating expenses of 30.3)Not given; non-GAAP net loss −16.0−52.6No debt. Net loss exceeds operating loss, so non-operating items cost money this quarter; I did not itemise them.
D-Wave3.1 (flat vs. 3.1)About −53 (derived: operating expenses 55.0 less gross profit of about 1.7)−37.1 adj. EBITDA−48.0Gross margin 55.4% (63.8% a year ago). Net loss is narrower than operating loss because of non-operating items I did not itemise.
Quantum Computing Inc.5.6 (vs. 0.06)−23.0Not given−11.8Gross loss of 1.2. Net loss is about half the operating loss because of non-operating items I did not itemise.
Xanadu1.5 (+43% vs. 1.1)About −30 (revenue less total operating expenses of 31.5)−21.3 adj. EBITDA−42.1Down from 2.8 in Q1. No numeric guidance yet; spending guidance promised later this summer.
Infleqtion13.5, revised up from 12.6 (+157% vs. 5.3)−29.9About −16.2 non-GAAP operating loss (press summary)−24.7The revision moves revenue between periods for two government contracts; the company says it is non-cash and immaterial. FY2026 guide about $45.1M.
Comparability caveat: GAAP net loss is not a usable cross-company number here IonQ's $1.87B loss is dominated by a warrant revaluation, Quantinuum's by IPO equity compensation and by Up-C attribution, and D-Wave's and Quantum Computing Inc.'s by non-operating items. "Adjusted" measures also differ (adjusted EBITDA for four, a non-GAAP operating loss for Infleqtion, nothing at all for Rigetti and Quantum Computing Inc.). Compare each name with its own prior quarters, and use operating loss or the company's adjusted loss as the burn indicator. Revenue is also lumpy and timing-sensitive (Quantinuum's first half fell year over year; Infleqtion restated its quarter), so a single quarter's growth rate says little.

Cash, runway and valuation snapshot

These companies are valued against cash and a revenue run-rate, not earnings. Market cap is the vendor figure at about 3:13 pm ET on Oct 8, 2026; cash is the company-reported total of cash and all investments at June 30. I computed enterprise value myself (market cap less company cash, plus vendor debt).

CompanyMarket cap, Oct 8, 2026 (US$B)Cash & investments, Jun 30, 2026 (US$B)Market cap ÷ cashEV (my calc, US$B)EV ÷ Q2 revenue × 4EV ÷ FY2026 guided revenueCash ÷ Q2 loss × 4 (years)
IonQ15.52.0 pro forma (3.0 before SkyWater)7.7x13.542x47x (midpoint, excludes SkyWater)4.2
Quantinuum10.92.15.2x8.8276x294x (midpoint)7.7
D-Wave5.30.559.8x4.8390x—3.7
Rigetti4.60.548.6x4.1199x—4.8†
Infleqtion2.50.584.3x1.936x43x9.0
Quantum Computing Inc.1.71.321.3x0.3616x—14.4†
Xanadu1.20.314.0x1.0163x—3.7

† Uses GAAP operating loss, because the company does not report an adjusted loss in the release I read; this overstates burn, so the runway is conservative. Other rows use the company's adjusted loss. Runway is illustrative: it holds the Q2 loss flat and ignores capital spending and acquisitions (IonQ's SkyWater deal took about $1B of cash; Quantum Computing Inc. used about $180M in H1). Infleqtion's loss figure is from a press summary of its release.

Vendor "total cash" leaves out long-term investments The data vendor's cash line for Rigetti ($393.7M), Quantum Computing Inc. ($954M) and Infleqtion ($477M) excludes non-current investments, which the filings put at $147.6M, $369M and $104.8M. On company figures, Rigetti's cash and investments are $541M, Quantum Computing Inc.'s $1,323M and Infleqtion's $582M. The vendor's enterprise value for Quantum Computing Inc. ($732M) is therefore about twice the roughly $360M implied by the filing: the company's market cap is only about 1.3 times its cash. Same lesson as LR-0007: rebuild the denominator before trusting a vendor ratio.

Relative performance: from the 2025 peak and since listing

StockPrice, Oct 8 (~3:13 pm ET)Oct 8 vs. Oct 7 closePeak close (date)Oct 7 close vs. peak1 year to Oct 7Since first close (date)
IONQ$38.93−5.8%$82.09 (Oct 13, 2025)−49.6%−47.8%+333% ($9.55, Oct 8, 2024)
RGTI$13.88−4.9%$56.34 (Oct 15, 2025)−74.1%−66.8%+1,773% ($0.78, Oct 8, 2024)
QBTS$14.35−5.7%$44.78 (Oct 15, 2025)−66.0%−57.4%+1,562% ($0.92, Oct 8, 2024)
QUBT$7.35−3.5%$25.68 (Dec 18, 2024)−70.3%−65.4%+958% ($0.72, Oct 8, 2024)
QNT$41.40−6.4%$83.17 (Jul 6, 2026)−46.8%n/a (listed Jun 4, 2026)−26.3% vs. the $60 IPO price
XNDU$4.07 (C$5.78 on the TSX)−9.5%$36.12 (May 1, 2026)−87.6%n/a (listed Mar 27, 2026)−61.0% ($11.50, Mar 27, 2026)
INFQ$11.05−5.1%$19.87 (Jun 2, 2026)−41.4%n/a (listed Feb 2026)−25.3% ($15.59, Feb 17, 2026)

Price return, Yahoo Finance daily closes (no dividends are paid, so this equals total return). Peak and return columns run to the Oct 7, 2026 close; the Oct 8 price is intraday, from the data vendor. Peaks are daily closes, not intraday highs.

Deep dive: Washington becomes a shareholder

Settled facts. On May 21, 2026 the Department of Commerce announced nine letters of intent worth $2.013B in CHIPS and Science Act incentives, per the NIST release. The planned amounts: IBM $1B (to set up a quantum foundry subsidiary focused on superconducting wafers), GlobalFoundries $375M (a quantum foundry), and $100M each for Atom Computing, D-Wave, Infleqtion, PsiQuantum and Quantinuum, up to $100M for Rigetti, and up to $38M for Diraq. As a condition of the funding, the Department receives a minority, non-controlling equity stake in each company. These are letters of intent, not final awards. IonQ, Quantum Computing Inc. and Xanadu are not among the nine.

Rigetti's own filing shows the mechanics: $100M over three years; shares issued to the Department in an amount consistent with the award; the issue price set at the lowest closing price among May 5, May 20 and the award date, less 15%; no milestones specified in the 8-K; dilution listed as a risk.

Current status (as of Oct 8, 2026; will date quickly). Press reports say definitive agreements were signed for D-Wave, Rigetti and Quantinuum around September 8, and one outlet reports that Rigetti will issue about 7.74M shares at roughly $12.92, which would be about 2.3% of its 333.8M shares. I could not confirm either from a filing. Rigetti closed up about 31% on May 21 ($22.04 vs. $16.88 the day before) but was back to $15.81 by September 8, below its pre-announcement close, so the stock gave back the whole move.

Why it matters for the comparison. It is validation and funding for scale-up, but also dilution priced at a discount, milestone-based cash (so not all of it is available up front), and a new dependence on policy. It also splits the group: four of the seven profiled names (Quantinuum, D-Wave, Rigetti, Infleqtion) are in the package; IonQ, with the largest cash pile before SkyWater, is not.

How the group behaves across environments

Relative positioning: a checklist to weigh against your own view

CompanyApproachDARPA QBI Stage B (list dated Nov 6, 2025)Commerce CHIPS letter of intent (May 21, 2026)Route to public markets
IonQTrapped ionYesNoPublic equity; stock-funded deals
QuantinuumTrapped ionYesYes, $100MIPO, Jun 2026
RigettiSuperconductingNot on the listYes, up to $100MPublic equity
D-WaveAnnealing and gate-modelNot on the listYes, $100MPublic equity; stock-funded deal
XanaduPhotonicYesNot among the nineDe-SPAC; standby equity facility
Quantum Computing Inc.Photonic and foundryNot on the listNot among the ninePublic equity
InfleqtionNeutral atom and sensingNot on the listYes, $100MDe-SPAC
IBMSuperconductingYesYes, $1B (foundry subsidiary)Already public; quantum not separately reported

Stage B is a year-long phase; DARPA's page lists no Stage C selections. The companies on the Stage B list are Atom Computing, Diraq, IBM, IonQ, Nord Quantique, Photonic Inc., Quantinuum, Quantum Motion, QuEra, Silicon Quantum Computing and Xanadu.

Where this connects to the curriculum

What I could not verify

Sources